The Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR) will be changing its name to the New Zealand Institute for Public Health and Forensic Science (PHF Science) on 1 July 2025. The new website address will be www.phfscience.nz as of this date. Visitors will automatically be redirected to the new address, but we would appreciate you checking and updating any links and bookmarks after this change.

Using Probabilistic Theory to Develop Interpretation Guidelines for Y-STR Profiles

Abstract

Y-STR profiling makes up a small but important proportion of forensic DNA casework. Often Y-STR profiles are used when autosomal profiling has failed to yield an informative result. Consequently Y-STR profiles are often from the most challenging samples. In addition to these points, Y-STR loci are linked, meaning that evaluation of haplotype probabilities are either based on overly simplified counting methods or computationally costly genetic models, neither of which extend well to the evaluation of mixed Y-STR data. For all of these reasons Y-STR data analysis has not seen the same advances as autosomal STR data. We present here a probabilistic model for the interpretation of Y-STR data. Due to the fact that probabilistic systems for Y-STR data are still some way from reaching active casework, we also describe how data can be analysed in a continuous way to generate interpretational thresholds and guidelines.

view journal