Summary

The transport sector – road, rail, maritime and aviation - emits a wide range of air pollutants which have associated adverse effects. In 2021, the Ministry of Health (MoH) funded a stocktake of the state of knowledge of the public health risks associated with transport emissions in New Zealand. That report (Part 1 of the Public Health Risks Associated with Transport Emissions in New Zealand) identified critical gaps, with the need to better understand the health impacts of exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions from on-road motor vehicles at number one. This report assesses the likely improvements in air pollution health impacts associated with meeting the targets for on-road vehicle greenhouse gas emissions in Te hau mārohi ki anamata | Aotearoa New Zealand’s First Emissions Reduction Plan. The key steps undertaken in the assessment were: Estimating the air pollution health impacts and social costs of motor vehicle emissions in 2019 to establish the baseline Assessing the change in motor vehicle emissions between 2019 and 2035 for business as usual (BAU) and scenarios representing the achievement of the various ERP targets (the scenarios) Calculating the associated air pollution health impacts and social costs of motor vehicle emissions in 2035 for BAU and the scenarios.