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Consideration of the probative value of single donor 15-plex STR profiles in UK populations and its presentation in UK courts II


Hopwood et al.[1] reported the probability of a second individual matching a certain profile given that one individual, usually the defendant, has this profile for the European Standard Set (ESS) of loci. This probability is usually termed as the match probability and depends on the proposed relationship between these two individuals, the allele probabilities and on any subpopulation effects [2]. The ESS has a pair of loci located on chromosome 12. Hopwood et al.[1] incorrectly interpreted earlier work [3] on these two loci as stating that Fst= 0.02 accommodates linkage between these two loci in all situations. Gill et al.[3] do state that Fst= 0.02 will suffice for the situation where the second individual is postulated to be unrelated to the defendant, but they explicitly state that linkage will need to be accommodated for some short pedigrees (Table 1).

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